Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

M. Virtue-Thick 51', 5'

9/28/2024

League Two · Round 8EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham36%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.38

Cheltenham

1.33

Fleetwood Town

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

1.15

1.61

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Fleetwood Town

1.54

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

62%

Cheltenham or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

74%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

75%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

40%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

48%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cheltenham scores more

36%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Virtue-Thick

Fleetwood Town · M

8.3

Match Events

5'

M. Virtue-Thick↳ R. Coughlan

28'

31'

36'

50'

51'

M. Virtue-Thick↳ E. Bonds

55'

55'

58'

64'

72'

K. Harratt← R. Coughlan

84'

M. Helm← M. Virtue-Thick

84'

M. Odubeko← R. Graydon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamFleetwood

Overview

54%Possession46%

6Total Shots14

2Corners6

13Fouls13

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target5

4Off Target7

1Blocked2

6Inside Box8

0Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

403Total Passes361

288Accurate Passes240

71%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0