Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

J. Martin 69'

I. Hutchinson 66'

10/4/2025

League Two · Round 11Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Cheltenham34%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.41

Cheltenham

1.28

Fleetwood Town

1.41

Fleetwood Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.13

creates per match

1.20

1.61

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Fleetwood Town

1.20

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.03on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

60%

Cheltenham or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

66%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

72%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

37%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

14%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

41%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

46%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cheltenham scores more

34%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

40%

Fleetwood Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

I. Hutchinson

Cheltenham · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

50'

53'

61'

66'

I. Hutchinson↳ E. Archer

67'

W. Davies← R. Graydon

69'

J. Martin↳ I. Hutchinson

71'

H. Neal← C. Evans

71'

M. Virtue-Thick← J. Davies

71'

J. Norwood← M. Helm

75'

R. Broom← J. Martin

75'

T. Taylor← J. Bickerstaff

76'

L. McCann← E. Ennis

88'

L. Kinsella← I. Hutchinson

90+4'

Harrison Neal

90+3'

F. Willcox← B. Stevenson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamFleetwood

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots18

0Corners6

7Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots18

5On Target7

3Off Target5

3Blocked6

6Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

362Total Passes435

258Accurate Passes313

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1