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Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
10/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 14Highbury Stadium
Big match
44%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
44%26%30%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%
×Draw26%
Bristol Rovers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.44
Bristol Rovers
1.13

Fleetwood Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.61
Bristol Rovers
1.34

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.91
Bristol Rovers
1.26

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less
Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
70%
Fleetwood Town or Bristol Rovers
74%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
21%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
76%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
42%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
18%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
68%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
31%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
60%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
44%
level
26%
Bristol Rovers scores more
30%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
49%PossessionBiggest gap52%
68%Pass accuracy66%
12.1Shots12.4
1.39xG1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Fleetwood Town
5
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 40%
0–12–10–02–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Bristol Rovers (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Bristol Rovers. Match starts October 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Bristol Rovers at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.