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Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/3/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 41Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bristol Rovers43%
×Draw26%
Fleetwood Town30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.44
Fleetwood Town
1.16

Bristol Rovers creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.51
Fleetwood Town
1.28

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.04
Fleetwood Town
1.37

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
70%
Bristol Rovers or Fleetwood Town
74%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
57%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
21%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
42%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
18%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
69%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
32%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
59%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.51 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fleetwood Town attack 1.28 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
43%
level
26%
Fleetwood Town scores more
30%

Bristol Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town

Bristol Rovers beat Fleetwood Town 1-0 in League Two on April 3, 2026.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol.