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Bristol Rovers vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
2/6/2024League OneLeague One · Round 18Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Bristol Rovers38%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 134 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
65%
Bristol Rovers or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
62%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
17%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
73%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
37%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
14%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
71%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
52%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
38%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
35%

Bristol Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 0–2 Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 in League One on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.