Fleetwood Town 0–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol Rovers

3/12/2024

League One · Round 38Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Fleetwood Town46%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.05

Fleetwood Town

1.43

Bristol Rovers

1.05

Fleetwood Town creates 36% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 133 away

1.27

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Bristol Rovers

0.94

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Bristol Rovers

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

72%

Fleetwood Town or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

54%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

22%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

42%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

17%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

65%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

28%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

62%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

46%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

28%

Fleetwood Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff