Flamengo 2–1 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Flamengo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ceara

Matheuzinho 79'

Gabriel Barbosa 3'

Rick 71'

11/30/2021

Serie A · Round 36Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Flamengo54%

×Draw26%

Ceara20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.83

Flamengo

1.53

Ceara

0.83

Flamengo creates 84% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

0.85

0.81

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Flamengo

1.63

Ceara

0.85

allows per match

Flamengo

0.81

Ceara

1.44

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Flamengo+0.30scores more

Ceara-0.05on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

80%

Flamengo or Ceara

74%

Draw or Ceara

46%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

28%

Ceara wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

78%

Flamengo 2+ goals

45%

Flamengo 3+ goals

20%

Ceara 1+ goals

56%

Ceara 2+ goals

20%

Ceara 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

73%

Ceara (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 41 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.44 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.63 + Ceara defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Ceara attack 0.85 + Flamengo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Flamengo scores more

54%

level

26%

Ceara scores more

20%

Flamengo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Matheuzinho

Flamengo · D

7.6

Match Events

3'

Gabriel Barbosa

3'

Gabriel Barbosa↳ Diego

27'

Hugo Souza← Diego Alves

35'

Lima

44'

Everton Ribeiro

46'

Bruno Viana← Léo Pereira

60'

Michael← Éverton Ribeiro

60'

G. De Arrascaeta← Diego

64'

Rick← Kelvyn

64'

Jorginho← Lima

68'

70'

71'

74'

79'

Matheuzinho↳ Bruno Henrique

81'

Bruno Henrique

83'

Marlon← Fabinho

84'

Renê← Ramon

90+2'

Airton← Igor

90+2'

Cleber← Fernando Sobral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoCeara

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots12

8Corners6

20Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots12

5On Target4

6Off Target3

4Blocked5

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

429Total Passes411

360Accurate Passes343

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

20Fouls19

6Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3