Ceara 1–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Flamengo

Pedro Raul 67'

G. de Arrascaeta 37'

8/3/2025

Serie A · Round 18Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Ceara37%

×Draw29%

Flamengo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.07

Ceara

1.12

Flamengo

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 40 away

1.08

creates per match

1.39

0.76

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Ceara

1.08

Flamengo

1.39

allows per match

Ceara

0.76

Flamengo

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

66%

Ceara or Flamengo

71%

Draw or Flamengo

63%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

15%

Flamengo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

67%

Ceara 2+ goals

31%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Flamengo 1+ goals

66%

Flamengo 2+ goals

29%

Flamengo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

52%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.76 · 12 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.16 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.08 + Flamengo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Flamengo attack 1.39 + Ceara defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ceara scores more

37%

level

29%

Flamengo scores more

34%

Ceara at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

50

G. Plata

Flamengo · M

7.9

Match Events

33'

Marllon

37'

G. de Arrascaeta↳ G. Plata

40'

Richardson

46'

Lucas Mugni← Lourenco

46'

Aylon← Pedro Henrique

46'

S. Niguez← G. de Arrascaeta

55'

Fernando Sobral← Richardson

67'

Pedro Raul↳ Lucas Mugni

72'

Jorginho

75'

Bruno Henrique

76'

Allan← Jorginho

76'

Juninho← Bruno Henrique

83'

Nicolas← Matheus Bahia

85'

G. Varela← Emerson Royal

85'

Victor Hugo← G. Plata

87'

Lucas Lima← Diego

90+4'

Fernando Sobral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaFlamengo

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots14

0.65Expected Goals (xG)1.05

3Corners7

14Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target4

5Off Target7

0Blocked3

8Inside Box9

1Outside Box5

Passing

31%Possession69%

274Total Passes627

209Accurate Passes548

76%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.66Goals Prevented0.66

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2