Ceara 2–2 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Flamengo

Nino Paraíba 90+1'

S. Mendoza 26'

Willian Arão 38', 7'

5/14/2022

Serie A · Round 6Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara38%

×Draw29%

Flamengo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.07

Ceara

1.15

Flamengo

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 39 away

1.12

creates per match

1.40

0.74

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Ceara

1.12

Flamengo

1.40

allows per match

Ceara

0.74

Flamengo

1.18

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par

Flamengo+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

66%

Ceara or Flamengo

71%

Draw or Flamengo

62%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

16%

Flamengo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

68%

Ceara 2+ goals

32%

Ceara 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo 1+ goals

66%

Flamengo 2+ goals

29%

Flamengo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

53%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Flamengo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Flamengo attack 1.40 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ceara scores more

38%

level

29%

Flamengo scores more

34%

Ceara at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Willian Arão

Flamengo · M

8.9

Match Events

7'

Willian Arão↳ G. De Arrascaeta

11'

Zé Roberto← Vina

26'

S. Mendoza↳ Zé Roberto

30'

Pablo

34'

Ayrton Lucas

37'

Geovane

38'

Willian Arão↳ G. De Arrascaeta

45+1'

45'

45+2'

46'

49'

61'

61'

Victor Luis← Lucas Ribeiro

61'

Richardson← Geovane

61'

Rodrigo Caio← David Luiz

62'

Marcos Paulo← M. Isla

69'

Marcos Paulo

69'

Nino Paraíba← Míchel Macedo

72'

Lázaro← Bruno Henrique

75'

Andreas Pereira← Éverton Ribeiro

78'

Hugo Souza

85'

Richardson

90+1'

Nino Paraíba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaFlamengo

Overview

41%Possession59%

15Total Shots11

7Corners3

18Fouls22

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target4

4Off Target3

6Blocked4

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

332Total Passes483

272Accurate Passes406

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls22

5Yellow Cards5

4Offsides0