FK Trayal 2–0 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

FK Trayal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

12/4/2019

Prva Liga · Round 23Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

FK Trayal44%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Vranje28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK TrayalExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

FK Trayal

1.29

Dinamo Vranje

0.96

FK Trayal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 33 away

1.19

creates per match

0.88

1.04

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

FK Trayal

1.19

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

FK Trayal

1.04

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Trayal ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FK Trayal or draw

72%

FK Trayal or Dinamo Vranje

72%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

56%

Winning margin

FK Trayal wins by 2+

20%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FK Trayal 1+ goals

72%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

37%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

62%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

25%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

61%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Trayal at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 106 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Trayal attack 1.19 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + FK Trayal defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Trayal scores more

44%

level

28%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

28%

FK Trayal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff