Dinamo Vranje 3–1 FK Trayal: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vranje

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FK Trayal

V. Radočaj 77'

M. Stevanović 53'

Ž. Dimitrov 29'

P. Pavlović 4'

9/6/2020

Prva Liga · Round 4Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje46%

×Draw26%

FK Trayal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchFK Trayal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Dinamo Vranje

1.44

FK Trayal

1.06

Dinamo Vranje creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 108 away

1.50

creates per match

0.77

1.34

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

FK Trayal

0.77

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

FK Trayal

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

FK Trayal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

72%

Dinamo Vranje or FK Trayal

74%

Draw or FK Trayal

54%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

22%

FK Trayal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

76%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

42%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

18%

FK Trayal 1+ goals

65%

FK Trayal 2+ goals

29%

FK Trayal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

62%

FK Trayal (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.39 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + FK Trayal defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Trayal attack 0.77 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

46%

level

26%

FK Trayal scores more

28%

Dinamo Vranje at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

P. Pavlović

29'

Ž. Dimitrov

40'

V. Radočaj← N. Ćirković

46'

Z. Liščević← A. Petrović

53'

M. Stevanović

56'

E. Dolovac← V. Ilić

56'

V. Spasić← M. Čubrilo

64'

V. Jovković← S. Golubović

64'

I. Jovanović← U. Stepanović

64'

F. Gogić← N. Milošević

72'

M. Antić← D. Nedeljković

72'

V. Balabanović← M. Keča

76'

N. Milosavljević← M. Kilibarda

77'

V. Radočaj

Dinamo

FK

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: D. Antić

40'▲V. Radočaj←▼N. Ćirković

56'▲E. Dolovac←▼V. Ilić

56'▲V. Spasić←▼M. Čubrilo

72'▲M. Antić←▼D. Nedeljković

72'▲V. Balabanović←▼M. Keča

Dinamo Vranje substitutes

RadočajDolovacSpasićAntićBalabanović

Manager: G. Lazarević

46'▲Z. Liščević←▼A. Petrović

64'▲V. Jovković←▼S. Golubović

64'▲I. Jovanović←▼U. Stepanović

64'▲F. Gogić←▼N. Milošević

76'▲N. Milosavljević←▼M. Kilibarda

FK Trayal substitutes

LiščevićJovkovićJovanovićGogićMilosavljević