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Dinamo Vranje vs FK Trayal — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
1 – 2
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
9/12/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje27%
×Draw24%
FK Trayal49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.22
FK Trayal
1.70

FK Trayal creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
2.00
FK Trayal
1.90

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
FK Trayal
0.43

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
51%
Dinamo Vranje or FK Trayal
76%
Draw or FK Trayal
73%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
11%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
12%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
82%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
51%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
36%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + FK Trayal defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

FK Trayal attack 1.90 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
27%
level
24%
FK Trayal scores more
49%

FK Trayal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs FK Trayal

FK Trayal beat Dinamo Vranje 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.