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FK Neftekhimik vs Chertanovo Moscow — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
FT
5 – 1
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
7/1/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Rublevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FK Neftekhimik69%
×Draw16%
Chertanovo Moscow15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
2.79
Chertanovo Moscow
1.23

FK Neftekhimik creates 127% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
2.19
Chertanovo Moscow
1.20

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.25
Chertanovo Moscow
3.40

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
85%
FK Neftekhimik or Chertanovo Moscow
84%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
31%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
49%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
94%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
76%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
52%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
71%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
35%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
83%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 2.19 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.79

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
69%
level
16%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
15%

FK Neftekhimik at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Neftekhimik vs Chertanovo Moscow

FK Neftekhimik beat Chertanovo Moscow 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rublevo in Moskva.