Chertanovo Moscow 2–2 FK Neftekhimik

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FK Neftekhimik

D. Tsypchenko 84'

L. Gerchikov 19'

M. Uridia 78'

D. Khubaev 9'

9/7/2019

First League · Round 12Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow38%

×Draw27%

FK Neftekhimik35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Chertanovo Moscow

1.27

FK Neftekhimik

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 122 away

1.37

creates per match

1.11

1.33

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

FK Neftekhimik

1.11

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.33

FK Neftekhimik

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

65%

Chertanovo Moscow or FK Neftekhimik

73%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

62%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

17%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

72%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

36%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

14%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

70%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

34%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

52%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.37 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.11 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

38%

level

27%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

35%

Chertanovo Moscow at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

16'

17'

19'

22'

23'

35'

65'

P. Shadrin← V. Galiulin

76'

I. Kamyshev← E. Kondakov

77'

N. Prudnikov← L. Gerchikov

78'

M. Uridia

79'

A. Kulikov← D. Khubaev

80'

A. Kireev← I. Petrov

83'

E. Rudkovskiy← D. Prutsev

84'

D. Tsypchenko

86'

M. Shiryaev

88'

Y. Zavezen← R. Ezhov

89'

A. Gilyazetdinov← M. Uridia

Chertanovo

FK

27

17

5

4

12

20

▼

Galiulin

22

Sitdikov

13

⚽

▼

Khubaev

95

▼

Petrov

10

⚽

▼

25

81

13

6

3

▼

Kondakov

4

Redkovich

11

▼

Ezhov

8

Vityugov

25

▼

Prutsev

68

⚽

▼

Gerchikov

9

Sarveli

91

⚽

Tsypchenk

Manager: I. Osinkin

76'▲I. Kamyshev←▼E. Kondakov

77'▲N. Prudnikov←▼L. Gerchikov

83'▲E. Rudkovskiy←▼D. Prutsev

88'▲Y. Zavezen←▼R. Ezhov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

5Kamyshev17Prudnikov10Rudkovskiy31Zavezen1Lomaev19Kanishchev96Konev

Manager: Y. Utkulbaev

65'▲P. Shadrin←▼V. Galiulin

79'▲A. Kulikov←▼D. Khubaev

80'▲A. Kireev←▼I. Petrov

89'▲A. Gilyazetdinov←▼M. Uridia

FK Neftekhimik substitutes

7Shadrin3Kulikov88Kireev26Gilyazetdinov6Vasiev9Antonov18Isupov19Michurenkov24Solovjev33Abdullin

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik

Chertanovo Moscow and FK Neftekhimik drew 2-2 in First League on September 7, 2019.

Goals: D. Khubaev (9'), L. Gerchikov (19'), M. Uridia (78'), D. Tsypchenko (84').

The match was played at Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki in Moskva.

Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs FK Neftekhimik