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FK Neftekhimik vs Chertanovo Moscow — First League 2026

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
CANC
00:00
Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
4/4/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FK Neftekhimik45%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo Moscow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
1.44
Chertanovo Moscow
1.08

FK Neftekhimik creates 33% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 53 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.32
Chertanovo Moscow
1.21

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
0.96
Chertanovo Moscow
1.55

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
72%
FK Neftekhimik or Chertanovo Moscow
74%
Draw or Chertanovo Moscow
55%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
22%
Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
76%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
42%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
18%
Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
66%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
29%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
62%
Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.32 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.21 + FK Neftekhimik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
45%
level
26%
Chertanovo Moscow scores more
28%

FK Neftekhimik at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FK Neftekhimik host Chertanovo Moscow

April 4, 2020: FK Neftekhimik take on Chertanovo Moscow in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.