FK Crvena Zvezda 5–0 Macva: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Macva

V. Kostov 82', 48'

I. Kone 33' (OG)

R. Krunic 18'

Bruno Duarte 7'

7/17/2026

Super Liga · Round 1Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda79%

×Draw15%

Macva6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchMacva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.52

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.41

Macva

0.52

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 363% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 50 away

2.91

creates per match

0.48

0.57

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.91

Macva

0.48

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.57

Macva

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Macva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

94%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Macva

85%

Draw or Macva

21%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

56%

Macva wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

91%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

69%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

43%

Macva 1+ goals

41%

Macva 2+ goals

10%

Macva 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

93%

Macva (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 147 matches

Macva away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.90 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Macva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.41

Macva attack 0.48 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

79%

level

15%

Macva scores more

6%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Abu Fani

FK Crvena Zvezda · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

Bruno Duarte↳ V. Kostov

18'

R. Krunic↳ Bruno Duarte

27'

Strahinja Eraković

33'

I. KoneOwn goal

48'

V. Kostov↳ Bruno Duarte

53'

Slobodan Sladojević

62'

T. Elsnik← R. Krunic

62'

A. Katai← M. Ivanic

63'

M. Arnautovic← Bruno Duarte

63'

M. Cham← L. Loizou

64'

L. Pejovic← I. Kone

64'

B. Vrastanovic← M. Vidakov

74'

M. Strika← N. Tiknizyan

76'

N. Delibasic← S. Abdullahi

82'

V. Kostov

86'

I. Ristivojevic← K. Tojcic

86'

N. Lainovic← V. Rakic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FKMacva

Overview

69%Possession31%

27Total Shots2

3.93Expected Goals (xG)0.01

9Corners0

9Fouls10

Shots

27Total Shots2

9On Target0

13Off Target0

5Blocked2

16Inside Box0

11Outside Box2

Passing

69%Possession31%

583Total Passes267

523Accurate Passes194

90%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0