Finland 2–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

Finland

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bosnia & Herzegovina

T. Pukki 77', 58'

M. Stevanović 84'

M. Pjanić 55'

3/24/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 1Helsingin olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Finland31%

×Draw25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FinlandExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.58

Finland

1.29

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.58

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Finland

1.33

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.50

allows per match

Finland

1.67

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finland+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finland ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Finland or draw

56%

Finland or Bosnia & Herzegovina

75%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

69%

Winning margin

Finland wins by 2+

13%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Finland 1+ goals

72%

Finland 2+ goals

37%

Finland 3+ goals

14%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

79%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

47%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Finland (draw refunded)

41%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finland at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finland attack 1.33 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.50 + Finland defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Finland scores more

31%

level

25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

44%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Joronen

Finland · G

7.7

Match Events

30'

Glen Kamara

46'

R. Schüller← O. Valakari

55'

M. Pjanić

58'

T. Pukki↳ J. Kauko

64'

H. Duljević← A. Gojak

77'

J. Pohjanpalo← R. Lod

77'

T. Pukki↳ J. Pohjanpalo

82'

T. Sparv← J. Kauko

82'

E. Demirović← G. Cimirot

84'

M. Stevanović↳ E. Džeko

86'

Rasmus Schüller

89'

S. Kolašinac← M. Stevanović

90'

Niko Hämäläinen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FinlandBosnia

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots19

5Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots19

7On Target7

3Off Target4

2Blocked8

9Inside Box16

3Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

437Total Passes545

366Accurate Passes475

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3