Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–3 Finland: Result & Stats

Bosnia & Herzegovina

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Finland

L. Menalo 69'

D. O'Shaughnessy 73'

R. Lod 50'

M. Forss 29'

11/13/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 9Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina38%

×Draw24%

Finland38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.50

Finland

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

1.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.33

Finland

1.67

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.33

Finland

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw

62%

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Finland

76%

Draw or Finland

62%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

18%

Finland wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

78%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

44%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

19%

Finland 1+ goals

78%

Finland 2+ goals

44%

Finland 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

50%

Finland (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Finland away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.33 + Finland defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Finland attack 1.67 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

38%

level

24%

Finland scores more

38%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Lod

Finland · M

8.5

Match Events

24'

Miralem Pjanić

29'

M. Forss↳ T. Pukki

37'

Jukka Raitala

39'

E. Demirović← S. Kolašinac

46'

U. Nissilä← M. Forss

50'

R. Lod↳ L. Väisänen

56'

S. Prcić← A. Hadžiahmetović

56'

66'

67'

69'

73'

D. O'Shaughnessy↳ R. Lod

76'

J. Uronen← R. Lod

80'

P. Arajuuri← R. Ivanov

80'

F. Jensen← T. Pukki

83'

Sanjin Prcić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BosniaFinland

Overview

68%Possession32%

28Total Shots8

13Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

28Total Shots8

7On Target5

15Off Target1

6Blocked2

19Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

567Total Passes290

497Accurate Passes215

88%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1