Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–2 Finland: Result & Stats

Bosnia & Herzegovina

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Finland

E. Džeko 58', 29'

M. Pjanić 5' (pen)

B. Källman 18'

T. Pukki 10'

6/14/2022

UEFA Nations League · League B - 4Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina46%

×Draw30%

Finland25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bosnia & HerzegovinaExpected goals in this matchFinland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.82

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.23

Finland

0.82

Bosnia & Herzegovina creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.00

Finland

0.64

allows per match

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.00

Finland

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Finland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia & Herzegovina ↓

Finland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bosnia & Herzegovina or draw

75%

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Finland

70%

Draw or Finland

54%

Winning margin

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

20%

Finland wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

71%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

35%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

13%

Finland 1+ goals

56%

Finland 2+ goals

20%

Finland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

65%

Finland (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia & Herzegovina at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Finland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 1.00 + Finland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Finland attack 0.64 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

46%

level

30%

Finland scores more

25%

Bosnia & Herzegovina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bosnia & Herzegovina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

E. Džeko

Bosnia & Herzegovina · F

9.3

Match Events

4'

Sauli Väisänen

5'

M. PjanićPenalty

10'

T. Pukki↳ B. Källman

18'

B. Källman↳ T. Pukki

29'

E. Džeko↳ M. Pjanić

31'

Edin DžekoGoal confirmed

45+2'

Sanjin Prcić

46'

A. Hadžiahmetović← S. Prcić

46'

H. Miličević← H. Duljević

46'

G. Kamara← U. Nissilä

46'

R. Ivanov← S. Väisänen

58'

E. Džeko↳ R. Krunić

59'

R. Lod← R. Schüller

68'

E. Ćivić← S. Kolašinac

73'

A. Kovačević← A. Ahmedhodžić

73'

J. Pohjanpalo← B. Källman

77'

A. Gojak← M. Pjanić

81'

R. Taylor← I. Niskanen

84'

Amer Gojak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BosniaFinland

Overview

40%Possession60%

16Total Shots8

9Corners4

11Fouls5

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

12Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

336Total Passes535

274Accurate Passes462

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls5

2Yellow Cards1