Figueirense 1–1 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie C

Figueirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CSA

Renan Bernabé 59'

Gabriel Taliari 24'

7/9/2023

Serie C · Round 12Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Figueirense44%

×Draw31%

CSA25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.79

Figueirense

1.15

CSA

0.79

Figueirense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

0.79

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Figueirense

1.30

CSA

0.79

allows per match

Figueirense

0.79

CSA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

75%

Figueirense or CSA

69%

Draw or CSA

56%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

19%

CSA wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

68%

Figueirense 2+ goals

32%

Figueirense 3+ goals

11%

CSA 1+ goals

55%

CSA 2+ goals

19%

CSA 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

64%

CSA (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 57 matches

CSA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.30 + CSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

CSA attack 0.79 + Figueirense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Figueirense scores more

44%

level

31%

CSA scores more

25%

Figueirense at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

24'

Gabriel Taliari

29'

32'

34'

Mauricio

44'

Dalberson

46'

Dudu← Lucas Lourenço

55'

Nicolas← Gustavo França

55'

Renan Bernabé← Bruno General

57'

Leo Artur

59'

Renan Bernabé

60'

Celsinho← Arnaldo

60'

Robinho← Rhayner

65'

73'

Jô← Tomas Bastos

78'

Andrew← Elias

78'

Cesinha← Barba

86'

Luís Felipe← Iago Teles

86'

Rhuan← Gabriel Taliari

90+6'

Eduardo Rosado

Figueirense

CSA

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Paulo Baier

46'▲Dudu←▼Lucas Lourenço

55'▲Nicolas←▼Gustavo França

55'▲Renan Bernabé←▼Bruno General

78'▲Andrew←▼Elias

78'▲Cesinha←▼Barba

Figueirense substitutes

DuduNicolasBernabéAndrewCesinhaGasparottoAndreyConceiçãoSantosGutPeixotoNucci

Manager: Marcelo Cabo

60'▲Celsinho←▼Arnaldo

60'▲Robinho←▼Rhayner

73'▲Jô←▼Tomas Bastos

86'▲Luís Felipe←▼Iago Teles

86'▲Rhuan←▼Gabriel Taliari

CSA substitutes

CelsinhoRobinhoJôFelipeRhuanFintelmanLuanGebsonRuanHenrique