CSA 3–0 Figueirense: Result & Stats | Serie B

CSA

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Figueirense

Pedro Lucas 84'

Nadson 29'

Paulo Sérgio 19' (pen)

10/6/2020

Serie B · Round 14Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

CSA50%

×Draw27%

Figueirense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.85

CSA

1.40

Figueirense

0.85

CSA creates 65% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 49 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

0.84

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

CSA

1.43

Figueirense

0.86

allows per match

CSA

0.84

Figueirense

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CSA or draw

77%

CSA or Figueirense

73%

Draw or Figueirense

50%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

24%

Figueirense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

75%

CSA 2+ goals

41%

CSA 3+ goals

17%

Figueirense 1+ goals

57%

Figueirense 2+ goals

21%

Figueirense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

69%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.43 + Figueirense defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.40

Figueirense attack 0.86 + CSA defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CSA scores more

50%

level

27%

Figueirense scores more

23%

CSA at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Nadson

CSA · M

7.9

Match Events

19'

Paulo SérgioPenalty

29'

Nadson

33'

Andrigo

40'

Marcos Antonio← Yago

40'

Dudu← Everton

42'

Marquinhos

53'

Éverton Santos← Marquinho

65'

Victor← Rodrigo Pimpão

65'

Pedro Junior← Nadson

66'

Elyeser← Matheus Neris

66'

Keké← Diego Gonçalves

66'

Gabriel Lima← Arouca

74'

Pedro Lucas← Rafinha

74'

Igor← Paulo Sérgio

84'

Pedro Lucas↳ Pedro Junior

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CSAFigueirense

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots10

2Corners3

26Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target0

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

4Inside Box3

5Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

490Total Passes551

420Accurate Passes490

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Discipline

26Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1