CSA 1–1 Figueirense: Result & Stats | Serie C

CSA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Figueirense

Robinho 83'

Felipe Augusto 28'

7/20/2025

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

CSA41%

×Draw29%

Figueirense30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

CSA

1.21

Figueirense

1.00

CSA creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

1.23

creates per match

0.89

1.10

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

CSA

1.23

Figueirense

0.89

allows per match

CSA

1.10

Figueirense

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CSA or draw

70%

CSA or Figueirense

71%

Draw or Figueirense

59%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

18%

Figueirense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

70%

CSA 2+ goals

34%

CSA 3+ goals

12%

Figueirense 1+ goals

63%

Figueirense 2+ goals

26%

Figueirense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

57%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.23 + Figueirense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Figueirense attack 0.89 + CSA defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CSA scores more

41%

level

29%

Figueirense scores more

30%

CSA at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

21'

28'

32'

35'

45+4'

46'

Baianinho← Igor Bahia

46'

Flavio← Nicolas

47'

Gabriel Santiago

55'

Felipe Augusto

57'

Marlyson← Felipe Augusto

57'

Renan← Gabriel Santiago

58'

Baianinho

61'

Danilinho← Gustavo Nicola

61'

Robinho← Luciano Naninho

72'

Kevyn← Camacho

72'

Ramon Vinicius← Rafinha Potiguar

78'

M. Cavalleri← Brayann

81'

Reifit← Joao Lucas

83'

Robinho

90+4'

CSA

Figueirense

52

Gabriel

4

Ligger

6

Toscas

7

▼

Nicolas

8

▼

Lucas

10

▼

Santiago

28

▼

Potiguar

33

Douglas

37

Dias

90

⚽

▼

92

1

2

3

4

6

5

▼

Camacho

8

▼

Nicola

7

▼

Naninho

11

Cachoeira

10

▼

Brayann

19

▼

Bahia

46'▲Baianinho←▼Igor Bahia

61'▲Danilinho←▼Gustavo Nicola

61'▲Robinho←▼Luciano Naninho

72'▲Kevyn←▼Camacho

78'▲M. Cavalleri←▼Brayann

CSA substitutes

12Georgemy13Marcao14Batista15Kevyn16Roberto17Silas18Baianinho20Marcelinho21Danilinho22Cavalleri25Vander99Robinho

Manager: Pintado

46'▲Flavio←▼Nicolas

57'▲Marlyson←▼Felipe Augusto

57'▲Renan←▼Gabriel Santiago

72'▲Ramon Vinicius←▼Rafinha Potiguar

81'▲Reifit←▼Joao Lucas

Figueirense substitutes

12Santana2Maia11Marlyson17Nem20Vinicius26Bacelar35Flavio77Renan79Reifit