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FF Jaro vs Haka — Veikkausliiga 2026

FF Jaro
FF Jaro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Haka
Haka
K. Cissoko 77'
S. Kahkonen 62'
K. Multanen 73'
8/9/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 19Project Liv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FF Jaro38%
×Draw25%
Haka38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Jaro
1.44
Haka
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 85 away

creates per match

FF Jaro
1.25
Haka
1.25

allows per match

FF Jaro
1.63
Haka
1.62

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw
62%
FF Jaro or Haka
75%
Draw or Haka
62%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+
18%
Haka wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals
76%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
42%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
18%
Haka 1+ goals
76%
Haka 2+ goals
42%
Haka 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)
50%
Haka (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

Haka away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.25 + Haka defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Haka attack 1.25 + FF Jaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FF Jaro scores more
38%
level
25%
Haka scores more
38%

FF Jaro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66
S. KahkonenFF JaroFF Jaro · F
7.5

Match Events

51'
Guillermo Sotelo
52'
Riku Selander
62'
S. Kahkonen↳ M. Ogungbaro
65'
J. Myrevik← G. Sotelo
65'
K. Multanen← A. Sejdiu
65'
E. Mommo← J. Akintunde
73'
K. Multanen↳ E. Mommo
77'
K. Cissoko
78'
R. Hudd← D. Bulgakov
78'
A. Okyere← S. Lindholm
79'
Niklas Friberg
81'
J. Remesaho← A. Bjonback
84'
Albin Björkskog
85'
Eetu Mömmö
90+2'
R. Vikstrom← A. Bjorkskog
90+1'
D. Parfitt-Williams← O. Sallinen

Possession

48%FF

Shots

13FF

Pass accuracy

48%FF

Statistics

FFHaka
Overview
48%Possession52%
13Total Shots8
2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.83
6Corners9
14Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots8
6On Target4
3Off Target3
4Blocked1
5Inside Box6
8Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
369Total Passes364
297Accurate Passes308
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls7
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Veikkausliiga: FF Jaro 2–1 Haka

FF Jaro beat Haka 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: S. Kahkonen (62'), K. Multanen (73'), K. Cissoko (77').

Haka controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Project Liv Arena in Jakobstad.