FF Jaro 1–3 Haka: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

FF Jaro

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Haka

J. Myrevik 85'

S. Ojala 80'

S. Chidi 44'

N. Friberg 12'

9/14/2019

Ykkönen · Round 12Jakobstads Centralplan (Pietarsaaren Keskuskenttä) (Pietarsaari (Jacobstad))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FF Jaro36%

×Draw23%

Haka41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchHaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.66

FF Jaro

1.54

Haka

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 26 away

1.99

creates per match

2.04

1.28

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.99

Haka

2.04

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.28

Haka

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

Haka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

59%

FF Jaro or Haka

77%

Draw or Haka

64%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

17%

Haka wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

79%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

45%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

20%

Haka 1+ goals

81%

Haka 2+ goals

49%

Haka 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

47%

Haka (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

Haka away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.99 + Haka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Haka attack 2.04 + FF Jaro defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FF Jaro scores more

36%

level

23%

Haka scores more

41%

Haka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

N. Friberg

25'

J. Thusberg← J. Tapani

27'

44'

45'

49'

51'

J. Brunell← O. Hirvonen

62'

L. Robles

62'

J. Bushue

71'

W. Moore← J. Alasuutari

74'

J. Kari← T. Purme

80'

S. Ojala

84'

L. Antinaho← S. Chidi

85'

J. Myrevik

88'

L. Robles

90'

J. Myrevik

90'

P. Milosavljević← A. Vidjeskog

FF

Haka

30

Immonen

3

⚽

2

6

14

20

18

▼

Tapani

15

▼

Purme

7

Hilska

10

⚽

▼

Chidi

23

⚽

1

15

5

2

▼

3

18

7

11

▼

Alasuutar

19

▼

Vidjeskog

24

Remesaho

21

⚽

Myrevik

Manager: N. Käcko

51'▲J. Brunell←▼O. Hirvonen

71'▲W. Moore←▼J. Alasuutari

90'▲P. Milosavljević←▼A. Vidjeskog

FF Jaro substitutes

6Brunell12Moore4Milosavljević8Niang36Valtonen

Manager: T. Tainio

25'▲J. Thusberg←▼J. Tapani

74'▲J. Kari←▼T. Purme

84'▲L. Antinaho←▼S. Chidi

Haka substitutes

19Thusberg16Kari24Antinaho1Aaltonen17Lehtojuuri21Keskitalo22Leong

Ykkönen: FF Jaro 1–3 Haka

Haka beat FF Jaro 3-1 in Ykkönen on September 14, 2019.

Goals: N. Friberg (12'), S. Chidi (44'), S. Ojala (80'), J. Myrevik (85').

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan (Pietarsaaren Keskuskenttä) (Pietarsaari (Jacobstad)).

FF Jaro vs Haka — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: FF Jaro 1–3 Haka