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FF Jaro vs AC Oulu — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FF Jaro
FF Jaro
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
3/28/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FF Jaro49%
×Draw22%
AC Oulu29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Jaro
1.92
AC Oulu
1.42

FF Jaro creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

FF Jaro
1.50
AC Oulu
1.67

allows per match

FF Jaro
1.17
AC Oulu
2.33

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw
71%
FF Jaro or AC Oulu
78%
Draw or AC Oulu
51%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+
28%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals
85%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
57%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
30%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
76%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
41%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)
63%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.50 + AC Oulu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

AC Oulu attack 1.67 + FF Jaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FF Jaro scores more
49%
level
22%
AC Oulu scores more
29%

FF Jaro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FF Jaro vs AC Oulu

AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 28, 2026.