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AC Oulu vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FF Jaro
FF Jaroadvanced
4/15/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AC Oulu44%
×Draw23%
FF Jaro33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.77
FF Jaro
1.52

AC Oulu creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
2.00
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

AC Oulu
0.69
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
67%
AC Oulu or FF Jaro
77%
Draw or FF Jaro
56%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
23%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
83%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
53%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
26%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
78%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
45%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
57%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 2.00 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + AC Oulu defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AC Oulu scores more
44%
level
23%
FF Jaro scores more
33%

AC Oulu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Oulu 1 – 2 FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat AC Oulu 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.