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FF Jaro vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga 2018

FF Jaro
FF Jaro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
AC Oulu
AC Oulu
9/14/2025VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 1Project Liv Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

FF Jaro39%
×Draw24%
AC Oulu37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FF Jaro
1.54
AC Oulu
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 79 away

creates per match

FF Jaro
1.25
AC Oulu
1.32

allows per match

FF Jaro
1.63
AC Oulu
1.84

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par
AC Oulu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

AC Oulu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw
63%
FF Jaro or AC Oulu
76%
Draw or AC Oulu
61%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+
19%
AC Oulu wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals
79%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
45%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
20%
AC Oulu 1+ goals
77%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
43%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)
52%
AC Oulu (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

AC Oulu away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.84 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.25 + AC Oulu defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.54

AC Oulu attack 1.32 + FF Jaro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FF Jaro scores more
39%
level
24%
AC Oulu scores more
37%

FF Jaro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: FF Jaro 1–2 AC Oulu

AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 2-1 in Veikkausliiga on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Project Liv Arena in Jakobstad.