Ferencvarosi TC 2–2 Dynamo Kyiv: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dynamo Kyiv

F. Boli 90'

T. Nguen 59'

C. de Pena 41'

V. Tsygankov 28' (pen)

10/28/2020

UEFA Champions League · Group G - 2Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC54%

×Draw22%

Dynamo Kyiv24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchDynamo Kyiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.21

Ferencvarosi TC

1.94

Dynamo Kyiv

1.21

Ferencvarosi TC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.89

creates per match

0.79

1.63

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

1.89

Dynamo Kyiv

0.79

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

1.63

Dynamo Kyiv

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

76%

Ferencvarosi TC or Dynamo Kyiv

78%

Draw or Dynamo Kyiv

46%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

31%

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

86%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

58%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

30%

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

70%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

34%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

70%

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.89 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.79 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

54%

level

22%

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

24%

Ferencvarosi TC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Shaparenko

Dynamo Kyiv · M

7.7

Match Events

12'

Somalia

21'

Marcel Heister

26'

Ihor Kharatin

28'

V. TsygankovPenalty

41'

C. de Pena

52'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

59'

T. Nguen↳ O. Zubkov

65'

A. Laïdouni← I. Kharatin

71'

Aissa Laïdouni

72'

Tokmac Nguen

73'

F. Boli← Isael

73'

R. Mak← D. Sigér

76'

Vitaliy Buyalskyi

82'

D. Harmash← V. Buyalskyi

86'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

86'

Sergiy Sydorchuk

86'

E. Botka← G. Lovrencsics

86'

L. Dvali← A. Kovačević

89'

B. Verbič← V. Supryaha

89'

T. Băluţă← M. Shaparenko

90+3'

G. Rodrigues← V. Tsygankov

90'

F. Boli↳ A. Laïdouni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerencvarosiDynamo

Overview

50%Possession50%

15Total Shots7

5Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target3

8Off Target1

3Blocked3

5Inside Box7

10Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

515Total Passes519

445Accurate Passes443

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0