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Dynamo Kyiv vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Champions League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
D. Popov 60'
12/8/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group G - 6NSK Olimpijs'kyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv35%
×Draw27%
Ferencvarosi TC38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.22
Ferencvarosi TC
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.94
Ferencvarosi TC
1.67

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.88
Ferencvarosi TC
1.50

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
62%
Dynamo Kyiv or Ferencvarosi TC
73%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
65%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
15%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
34%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
12%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
72%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
36%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
48%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.94 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.67 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
35%
level
27%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
38%

Ferencvarosi TC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
D. PopovDynamo KyivDynamo Kyiv · D
7.9

Match Events

27'
Carlos De Pena
37'
Denys Garmash
45'
Aissa Laïdouni
47'
Ihor Kharatin
59'
Miha Blažič
60'
D. Popov↳ T. Kędziora
70'
V. Shepelev← D. Harmash
70'
V. Supryaha← C. de Pena
73'
R. Baturina← M. Uzuni
74'
Isael← I. Kharatin
80'
R. Mak← O. Zubkov
80'
E. Botka← G. Lovrencsics
84'
Isael
86'
B. Lednev← V. Tsygankov
86'
G. Rodrigues← B. Verbič
86'
F. Boli← T. Nguen
90+2'
O. Andrievskyi← S. Sydorchuk

Possession

41%Dynamo

Shots

4Dynamo

Pass accuracy

48%Dynamo

Statistics

DynamoFerencvarosi
Overview
41%Possession59%
4Total Shots8
2Corners5
15Fouls18
Shots
4Total Shots8
2On Target2
1Off Target4
1Blocked2
3Inside Box4
1Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
388Total Passes541
285Accurate Passes425
73%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls18
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Dynamo Kyiv vs Ferencvarosi TC

Dynamo Kyiv beat Ferencvarosi TC 1-0 in UEFA Champions League on December 8, 2020.

Goals: D. Popov (60').

Ferencvarosi TC controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 4.

The match was played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Kiev.