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Dynamo Kyiv vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Europa League 2026

Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
11/7/2024UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 4Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv34%
×Draw29%
Ferencvarosi TC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo Kyiv
1.09
Ferencvarosi TC
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv
0.69
Ferencvarosi TC
0.90

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv
1.38
Ferencvarosi TC
1.50

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw
63%
Dynamo Kyiv or Ferencvarosi TC
71%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
66%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
14%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
66%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
30%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
10%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
68%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
32%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
48%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.09

Ferencvarosi TC attack 0.90 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more
34%
level
29%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
37%

Ferencvarosi TC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Dynamo Kyiv 0–4 Ferencvarosi TC

Ferencvarosi TC beat Dynamo Kyiv 4-0 in UEFA Europa League on November 7, 2024.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.