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Fellbach vs FC Nöttingen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
0 – 1
FC Nöttingen
FC Nöttingen
2/8/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fellbach54%
×Draw19%
FC Nöttingen27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
2.58
FC Nöttingen
1.83

Fellbach creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Fellbach
1.50
FC Nöttingen
0.67

allows per match

Fellbach
3.00
FC Nöttingen
3.67

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
FC Nöttingen+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

FC Nöttingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
73%
Fellbach or FC Nöttingen
81%
Draw or FC Nöttingen
46%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
34%
FC Nöttingen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
92%
Fellbach 2+ goals
72%
Fellbach 3+ goals
47%
FC Nöttingen 1+ goals
84%
FC Nöttingen 2+ goals
54%
FC Nöttingen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
66%
FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

FC Nöttingen away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 1.50 + FC Nöttingen defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

FC Nöttingen attack 0.67 + Fellbach defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fellbach scores more
54%
level
19%
FC Nöttingen scores more
27%

Fellbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fellbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs FC Nöttingen

FC Nöttingen beat Fellbach 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 8, 2025.