Fellbach 3–1 FC Nöttingen: Result & Stats

Fellbach

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Nöttingen

8/3/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Max-Graser-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach25%

×Draw21%

FC Nöttingen54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FellbachExpected goals in this matchFC Nöttingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.07

Fellbach

1.35

FC Nöttingen

2.07

FC Nöttingen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

0.82

creates per match

1.96

2.18

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Fellbach

0.82

FC Nöttingen

1.96

allows per match

Fellbach

2.18

FC Nöttingen

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par

FC Nöttingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

FC Nöttingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw

46%

Fellbach or FC Nöttingen

79%

Draw or FC Nöttingen

75%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+

11%

FC Nöttingen wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals

74%

Fellbach 2+ goals

39%

Fellbach 3+ goals

15%

FC Nöttingen 1+ goals

87%

FC Nöttingen 2+ goals

61%

FC Nöttingen 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)

32%

FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

FC Nöttingen away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Nöttingen attack 1.96 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fellbach scores more

25%

level

21%

FC Nöttingen scores more

54%

FC Nöttingen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Nöttingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff