FC Nöttingen 7–2 Fellbach: Result & Stats

FC Nöttingen

FT

7 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Fellbach

E. de Santis 77'

D. Stojak 59', 43'

J. Marton 55'

D. Klemm 50'

F. Krajinovic 10'

F. Waldraff 3'

A. Arslan 89'

B. Causevic 21'

11/22/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Kleiner-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Nöttingen63%

×Draw18%

Fellbach19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NöttingenExpected goals in this matchFellbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.37

FC Nöttingen

2.57

Fellbach

1.37

FC Nöttingen creates 88% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 17 away

2.38

creates per match

1.24

1.50

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

FC Nöttingen

2.38

Fellbach

1.24

allows per match

FC Nöttingen

1.50

Fellbach

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nöttingen+0.00on par

Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nöttingen ↓

Fellbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

FC Nöttingen or draw

81%

FC Nöttingen or Fellbach

82%

Draw or Fellbach

37%

Winning margin

FC Nöttingen wins by 2+

42%

Fellbach wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

FC Nöttingen 1+ goals

92%

FC Nöttingen 2+ goals

72%

FC Nöttingen 3+ goals

47%

Fellbach 1+ goals

75%

Fellbach 2+ goals

40%

Fellbach 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FC Nöttingen (draw refunded)

77%

Fellbach (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nöttingen at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nöttingen attack 2.38 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.57

Fellbach attack 1.24 + FC Nöttingen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Nöttingen scores more

63%

level

18%

Fellbach scores more

19%

FC Nöttingen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Nöttingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

F. Waldraff

10'

F. Krajinovic

21'

B. Causevic

43'

D. Stojak

50'

D. Klemm

55'

J. Marton

59'

D. Stojak

77'

E. de Santis

89'

A. Arslan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff