Felgueiras 1932 1–1 Academico Viseu: Result & Stats

Felgueiras 1932

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Academico Viseu

Carlos Eduardo 61'

André Clóvis 3'

10/5/2024

Segunda Liga · Round 7Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Felgueiras 193240%

×Draw28%

Academico Viseu32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felgueiras 1932Expected goals in this matchAcademico Viseu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.07

Felgueiras 1932

1.23

Academico Viseu

1.07

Felgueiras 1932 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 128 away

1.12

creates per match

1.18

0.97

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932

1.12

Academico Viseu

1.18

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932

0.97

Academico Viseu

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Academico Viseu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw

68%

Felgueiras 1932 or Academico Viseu

72%

Draw or Academico Viseu

60%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

17%

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

71%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

35%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

13%

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

66%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

29%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

55%

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Academico Viseu away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.12 + Academico Viseu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Academico Viseu attack 1.18 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

40%

level

28%

Academico Viseu scores more

32%

Felgueiras 1932 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Pedro Rosas

Felgueiras 1932 · D

7.7

Match Events

3'

André Clóvis

30'

Pedro Rosas← J. Bonilla

30'

Landinho← Vasco Moreira

39'

Aílson Tavares

46'

Carlos Eduardo← Théo Fonseca

54'

Henrique Gomes← Famana Quizera

61'

Carlos Eduardo

62'

Agostinho Magalhães← Hugo Oliveira

62'

Diogo Almeida← Yuri Araújo

63'

65'

68'

76'

76'

78'

Rodrigo Valente← Gabi Pereira

78'

Sori Mané← S. Koné

78'

Marquinho← André Almeida

90+4'

João Reis Pinto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FelgueirasAcademico

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots8

5Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked4

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

523Total Passes255

432Accurate Passes168

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Academico Viseu

Felgueiras 1932 and Academico Viseu drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on October 5, 2024.

Goals: André Clóvis (3'), Carlos Eduardo (61').

Felgueiras 1932 controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.

Felgueiras 1932 vs Academico Viseu — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Academico Viseu