Academico Viseu 0–1 Felgueiras 1932: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Felgueiras 1932

M. Rivas 20' (pen)

4/4/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 28Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Academico Viseu39%

×Draw28%

Felgueiras 193233%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchFelgueiras 1932

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Academico Viseu

1.25

Felgueiras 1932

1.12

Academico Viseu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

1.15

1.09

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.25

Felgueiras 1932

1.15

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.09

Felgueiras 1932

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

67%

Academico Viseu or Felgueiras 1932

72%

Draw or Felgueiras 1932

61%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

17%

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

71%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

36%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

13%

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

67%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

31%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

54%

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 129 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.25 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Academico Viseu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

39%

level

28%

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

33%

Academico Viseu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

Mateus Pasinato

Felgueiras 1932 · G

7.9

Match Events

5'

Pedro Barcelos

18'

Lucas DuartePenalty confirmed

20'

M. RivasPenalty

45+4'

Anthony Correia

49'

Pedro Barcelos

49'

Pedro Barcelos

52'

R. Pereira← C. Kahraman

62'

N. Mortimer← L. Silva

62'

L. Gohi← Joao Guilherme

69'

Dudu Cruz← J. Pinto

74'

Nils Mortimer

78'

L. Santos Teixeira← Eiro

78'

Michel Costa← Gabi

78'

T. Leite← Lucas Duarte

79'

Anthony Correia

79'

Anthony Correia

80'

A. Ceitil← Andre Clovis

80'

D. Steczyk← A. Zamora

89'

90+7'

90+5'

90+1'

90+6'

Beni← Landinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AcademicoFelgueiras

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots11

5Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots11

3On Target4

6Off Target5

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

432Total Passes305

357Accurate Passes232

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

8Yellow Cards1

2Red Cards0

2Offsides0

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 0–1 Felgueiras 1932

Felgueiras 1932 beat Academico Viseu 1-0 in Segunda Liga on April 4, 2026.

Goals: M. Rivas (20' pen).

Academico Viseu controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.

Academico Viseu vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 0–1 Felgueiras 1932