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Academico Viseu vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
3/1/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 24Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Academico Viseu39%
×Draw28%
Felgueiras 193233%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.25
Felgueiras 1932
1.12

Academico Viseu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 34 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.25
Felgueiras 1932
1.15

allows per match

Academico Viseu
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.26

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
67%
Academico Viseu or Felgueiras 1932
72%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
61%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
17%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
71%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
36%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
13%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
67%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
31%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
54%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.09 · 129 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.25 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Academico Viseu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
39%
level
28%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
33%

Academico Viseu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
João Silva
60'
Famana Quizera← João Pinto
60'
G. Ott← A. Marinelli
60'
S. Messeguem← N. Thomas
60'
André Clóvis← Diogo Almeida
65'
Afonso Silva
67'
Brandão← João Silva
67'
João Santos← E. Ayiah
69'
Marquinho← S. Koné
75'
Soufiane Messeguem
84'
Paulinho Mota
90+1'
Landinho
90+2'
Gabi Pereira← Léo Teixeira
90+2'
Feliz Vaz← Landinho

Statistics

AcademicoFelgueiras
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Academico Viseu vs Felgueiras 1932

Academico Viseu and Felgueiras 1932 drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.