FCSB 1–0 CS Mioveni: Result & Stats

FCSB

FT

1 – 0

CS Mioveni

7/7/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadionul Comunal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FCSB84%

×Draw12%

CS Mioveni5%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FCSBExpected goals in this matchCS Mioveni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.50

FCSB

2.75

CS Mioveni

0.50

FCSB creates 450% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

0.25

0.75

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

FCSB

3.00

CS Mioveni

0.25

allows per match

FCSB

0.75

CS Mioveni

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par

CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

CS Mioveni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FCSB or draw

95%

FCSB or CS Mioveni

88%

Draw or CS Mioveni

16%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+

63%

CS Mioveni wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals

93%

FCSB 2+ goals

75%

FCSB 3+ goals

51%

CS Mioveni 1+ goals

39%

CS Mioveni 2+ goals

9%

CS Mioveni 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)

95%

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 3.00 + CS Mioveni defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

CS Mioveni attack 0.25 + FCSB defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

FCSB scores more

84%

level

12%

CS Mioveni scores more

5%

FCSB at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff