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CS Mioveni vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
I. Balaur 45+1'
M. Edjouma 7'
2/19/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

CS Mioveni24%
×Draw29%
FCSB47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Mioveni
0.83
FCSB
1.28

FCSB creates 54% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 155 away

creates per match

CS Mioveni
0.60
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

CS Mioveni
1.05
FCSB
1.07

finishing

CS Mioveni+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Mioveni ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Mioveni or draw
53%
CS Mioveni or FCSB
71%
Draw or FCSB
76%

Winning margin

CS Mioveni wins by 2+
8%
FCSB wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

CS Mioveni 1+ goals
56%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
20%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
5%
FCSB 1+ goals
72%
FCSB 2+ goals
37%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
34%
FCSB (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Mioveni at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.05 · 40 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Mioveni attack 0.60 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

FCSB attack 1.51 + CS Mioveni defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CS Mioveni scores more
24%
level
29%
FCSB scores more
47%

FCSB at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Edjouma↳ Paulo Vinícius
38'
Malcom Edjouma
45'
Sorin Serban
45+1'
I. Balaur↳ B. Rusu
46'
V. Gheorghe← S. Șerban
53'
Ovidiu Popescu← V. Crețu
65'
A. Panait← S. Vereș
65'
A. Raicea← A. Buziuc
69'
Ionut Burnea
70'
A. Burlacu← I. Stoica
73'
D. Şerbănică← I. Burnea
73'
V. Mitrea← E. Dat
77'
Alexandru Raicea
84'
Mihai Andrei Panait
88'
Ș. Blănaru← I. Rădescu
90+6'
Iustin Popescu
90+6'
Guilherme Garutti

Shots

5CS

Statistics

CSFCSB
Overview
5Total Shots2
1Corners7
18Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots2
4On Target1
1Off Target1
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls14
5Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Liga I: CS Mioveni 1–1 FCSB

CS Mioveni and FCSB drew 1-1 in Liga I on February 19, 2022.

Goals: M. Edjouma (7'), I. Balaur (45+1').

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Mioveni.