FC Zurich 2–1 FC Thun: Result & Stats

FC Zurich

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Thun

I. Cavaleiro 77'

D. Reverson 15'

L. Bertone 38'

3/21/2026

Super League · Round 31Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Zurich37%

×Draw24%

FC Thun40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ZurichExpected goals in this matchFC Thun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.61

FC Zurich

1.54

FC Thun

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

1.51

1.71

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Zurich

1.73

FC Thun

1.51

allows per match

FC Zurich

1.71

FC Thun

1.35

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

FC Zurich-0.06on par

FC Thun+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Thun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw

60%

FC Zurich or FC Thun

76%

Draw or FC Thun

63%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+

18%

FC Thun wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals

79%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

45%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

20%

FC Thun 1+ goals

80%

FC Thun 2+ goals

48%

FC Thun 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

48%

FC Thun (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.73 + FC Thun defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Thun attack 1.51 + FC Zurich defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Zurich scores more

37%

level

24%

FC Thun scores more

40%

FC Thun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

I. Cavaleiro

FC Zurich · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

D. Reverson↳ V. Berisha

25'

David Vujević

38'

L. Bertone↳ E. Rastoder

41'

Franz-Ethan Meichtry

65'

Brighton LabeauPenalty cancelled

68'

Cheveyo Tsawa

73'

K. Ihendu← D. Vujevic

73'

J. Perea← D. Reverson

75'

C. Ibayi← B. Labeau

75'

K. Imeri← N. Reichmuth

77'

I. Cavaleiro↳ V. Berisha

79'

F. Dursun← F. Meichtry

80'

L. Comenencia← S. Walker

84'

Christopher Ibayi

87'

M. Bangoura← I. Cavaleiro

88'

J. Roth← F. Fehr

88'

L. Dahler← M. Kait

90+8'

Juan José Perea

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots21

0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.64

2Corners9

15Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots21

5On Target7

1Off Target9

2Blocked5

8Inside Box14

0Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

273Total Passes341

161Accurate Passes240

59%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

-0.47Goals Prevented-0.47

Discipline

15Fouls19

3Yellow Cards2