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FC Thun vs FC Zurich — Super League 2018

FC Thun
FC Thun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Zurich
FC Zurich
B. Kramer 40'
11/2/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun43%
×Draw22%
FC Zurich35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
1.94
FC Zurich
1.74

FC Thun creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 28 away

creates per match

FC Thun
2.14
FC Zurich
1.31

allows per match

FC Thun
2.17
FC Zurich
1.74

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par
FC Zurich-0.13scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Zurich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
65%
FC Thun or FC Zurich
78%
Draw or FC Zurich
57%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
24%
FC Zurich wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
86%
FC Thun 2+ goals
58%
FC Thun 3+ goals
30%
FC Zurich 1+ goals
82%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
52%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
55%
FC Zurich (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.74 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC Zurich defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Zurich attack 1.31 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Thun scores more
43%
level
22%
FC Zurich scores more
35%

FC Thun at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
Y. BrecherFC ZurichFC Zurich · G
9.5

Match Events

8'
Sven Joss
34'
Simon Sohm
37'
Benjamin Kololli
38'
Stefan Glarner
40'
B. Kramer↳ A. Marchesano
58'
Simon Sohm
58'
Simon Sohm
63'
V. Janjičić← M. Schönbächler
70'
H. Ahmed← J. Roth
70'
K. Rüegg← A. Marchesano
79'
R. Munsy← N. Sutter
82'
Sven Joss
82'
Sven Joss
87'
N. Havenaar← M. Rodrigues
88'
A. Tosin← P. Jagne
89'
Tosin Aiyegun
90'
Simone Rapp

Possession

61%FC

Shots

27FC

Pass accuracy

53%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
61%Possession39%
27Total Shots5
5Corners3
7Fouls18
Shots
27Total Shots5
8On Target3
14Off Target1
5Blocked1
17Inside Box4
10Outside Box1
Passing
61%Possession39%
549Total Passes344
457Accurate Passes252
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves8
Discipline
7Fouls18
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Super League: FC Thun 0–1 FC Zurich

FC Zurich beat FC Thun 1-0 in Super League on November 2, 2019.

Goals: B. Kramer (40').

FC Thun controlled possession (61%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.