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FC Zurich vs FC Thun — Super League 2018

FC Zurich
FC Zurich
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Thun
FC Thun
V. Matoshi 90'
C. Ibayi 59'
F. Meichtry 41'
E. Rastoder 14'
8/23/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 4Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Zurich37%
×Draw24%
FC Thun40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Zurich
1.54
FC Thun
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

FC Zurich
1.73
FC Thun
1.51

allows per match

FC Zurich
1.71
FC Thun
1.35

finishing

FC Zurich-0.06on par
FC Thun+0.36scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Zurich ↓

FC Thun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Zurich or draw
60%
FC Zurich or FC Thun
76%
Draw or FC Thun
63%

Winning margin

FC Zurich wins by 2+
18%
FC Thun wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Zurich 1+ goals
79%
FC Zurich 2+ goals
45%
FC Zurich 3+ goals
20%
FC Thun 1+ goals
80%
FC Thun 2+ goals
48%
FC Thun 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Zurich (draw refunded)
48%
FC Thun (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Zurich at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Zurich attack 1.73 + FC Thun defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Thun attack 1.51 + FC Zurich defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Zurich scores more
37%
level
24%
FC Thun scores more
40%

FC Thun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
F. MeichtryFC ThunFC Thun · M
8.9

Match Events

14'
E. Rastoder↳ C. Ibayi
41'
F. Meichtry↳ N. Reichmuth
43'
Genís Montolio
44'
N. Volken← M. Rodic
46'
Mariano Gómez
46'
L. Comenencia← L. Kamberi
48'
Marco Bürki
59'
C. Ibayi↳ E. Rastoder
65'
I. Sauter← J. Segura
65'
K. Imeri← N. Reichmuth
65'
B. Labeau← C. Ibayi
66'
P. P. Keny← B. Krasniqi
77'
V. Janjicic← M. Kait
77'
V. Matoshi← F. Meichtry
80'
D. Reverson← U. Emmanuel
83'
J. Bamert← E. Rastoder
87'
Philippe Keny
90'
V. Matoshi

Possession

66%FC

Shots

20FC

Pass accuracy

55%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
66%Possession34%
20Total Shots10
1.08Expected Goals (xG)1.30
4Corners3
8Fouls13
Shots
20Total Shots10
3On Target7
7Off Target1
10Blocked2
15Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
66%Possession34%
547Total Passes270
474Accurate Passes191
87%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides9

Match Recap: FC Zurich vs FC Thun

FC Thun beat FC Zurich 4-0 in Super League on August 23, 2025.

Goals: E. Rastoder (14'), F. Meichtry (41'), C. Ibayi (59'), V. Matoshi (90').

FC Zurich controlled possession (66%) and registered 20 shots to 10.

The match was played at Letzigrund Stadion in Zurich.