FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Greuther Fürth II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
FC Wurzburger Kickers62%
Greuther Fürth II18%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 99% more chances
Season form · 55 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches
Greuther Fürth II away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.71 + Greuther Fürth II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.15
Greuther Fürth II attack 1.34 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
FC Wurzburger Kickers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Greuther Fürth II substitutes
Türkgücü-Ataspor
FC Schweinfurt 05
Nürnberg II
Bayreuth
Viktoria Aschaffenburg
EichstättGreuther Fürth II
Buchbach
Aubstadt
Augsburg II
Wacker Burghausen
Illertissen
Rain / Lech
Heimstetten
Schalding-Heining
1860 Rosenheim
Memmingen
GarchingIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Wurzburger Kickers host Greuther Fürth II on Saturday, 15 October 2022 at 12:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Bayern 2019/2020 season.
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3 – 0 Greuther Fürth II
FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Greuther Fürth II 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 15, 2022.
Goals: D. Meisel (20'), I. Franjić (24', 67').
The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.