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FC Vitebsk vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — Premier League 2018

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
12/9/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Relegation RoundFutbol'nyy Manezh CSK FC Vitebsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

FC Vitebsk41%
×Draw27%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
1.35
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.16

FC Vitebsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 74 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.20
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.34

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.98
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.51

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
68%
FC Vitebsk or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
73%
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
59%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
19%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
74%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
39%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
15%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
69%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
32%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
56%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.98 · 112 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.20 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.34 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
41%
level
27%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
32%

FC Vitebsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Vitebsk 1–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FC Vitebsk beat FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1-0 in Premier League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Futbol'nyy Manezh CSK FC Vitebsk in Vitebsk.