Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Vitebsk vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk — Coppa 2026

FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebskadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
7/21/2023CoppaCoppa · Round of 32Stadyen Central'ny Vitsyebski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Vitebsk12%
×Draw19%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Vitebsk
0.78
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
2.14

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 174% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Vitebsk
1.22
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
3.50

allows per match

FC Vitebsk
0.78
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.33

finishing

FC Vitebsk+0.00on par
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Vitebsk ↓

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Vitebsk or draw
32%
FC Vitebsk or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
81%
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
88%

Winning margin

FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
4%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
54%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
18%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
4%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
88%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
63%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
15%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Vitebsk at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Vitebsk attack 1.22 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.78

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 3.50 + FC Vitebsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FC Vitebsk scores more
12%
level
19%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
68%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: FC Vitebsk 1–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

FC Vitebsk beat FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1-0 in Coppa on July 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Central'ny Vitsyebski in Vitebsk.