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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs FC Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
3/19/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk41%
×Draw26%
FC Vitebsk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.41
FC Vitebsk
1.25

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 13% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 114 away

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.37
FC Vitebsk
1.02

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.49
FC Vitebsk
1.44

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw
67%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or FC Vitebsk
74%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
59%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
19%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
76%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
41%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
17%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
71%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
36%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
55%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 75 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.44 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.37 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

FC Vitebsk attack 1.02 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
41%
level
26%
FC Vitebsk scores more
33%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs FC Vitebsk

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk beat FC Vitebsk 3-1 in Premier League on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.