Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Tokyo vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
5/3/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 33Ajinomoto Stadium
Big match
42%
FC Tokyo
model favours
42%26%32%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Tokyo42%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.42
Shimizu S-pulse
1.19

FC Tokyo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.38
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.42
Shimizu S-pulse
1.45

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
68%
FC Tokyo or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
58%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
20%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
76%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
41%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
17%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
70%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
33%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
57%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.38 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + FC Tokyo defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
42%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
32%

FC Tokyo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Tokyo win just 30% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
FC Tokyo
Attack-heavy
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack-heavy
50%Possession51%
81%Pass accuracy79%
15.4Shots14.1
1.77xGBiggest gap1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FC TokyoShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
FC Tokyo
1
Draws
2
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 20%
1–10–20–23–04–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tokyo
LDLDW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Tokyo face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with FC Tokyo hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts May 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Tokyo host Shimizu S-pulse at Ajinomoto Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.