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FC Thun vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

FC Thun
FC Thun
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
E. Alioski 90' (pen)
4/25/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Championship Group - 34Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun40%
×Draw22%
FC Lugano38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Thun
1.85
FC Lugano
1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

creates per match

FC Thun
2.14
FC Lugano
1.47

allows per match

FC Thun
2.17
FC Lugano
1.57

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par
FC Lugano-0.34scores less

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw
62%
FC Thun or FC Lugano
78%
Draw or FC Lugano
60%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+
21%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals
84%
FC Thun 2+ goals
55%
FC Thun 3+ goals
28%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
84%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
54%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)
51%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC Lugano defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Lugano attack 1.47 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Thun scores more
40%
level
22%
FC Lugano scores more
38%

FC Thun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
H. DelcroixFC LuganoFC Lugano · D
8.2

Match Events

5'
L. Dahler← G. Montolio
33'
Michael Heule
36'
Antonios Papadopoulos
46'
Fabio Fehr
46'
M. Belhadj← D. Dos Santos
53'
Mattia Zanotti
57'
K. Behrens← G. Koutsias
62'
V. Matoshi← F. Fehr
62'
F. Meichtry← K. Imeri
74'
B. Labeau← C. Ibayi
74'
F. Dursun← M. Kait
77'
E. Alioski← Y. Cimignani
81'
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
89'
E. Pihlstrom← U. Bislimi
89'
M. Bottani← R. Steffen
90+5'
Marco Burki
90+10'
Ezgjan Alioski
90+4'
Mohamed Belhadj MahmoudPenalty confirmed
90'
E. AlioskiPenalty

Possession

45%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

48%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots13
0.76Expected Goals (xG)2.48
7Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots13
4On Target6
7Off Target4
2Blocked3
8Inside Box11
5Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
315Total Passes401
239Accurate Passes338
76%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
0.28Goals Prevented0.28
Discipline
10Fouls14
3Yellow Cards4
0Offsides1

Super League: FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano

FC Lugano beat FC Thun 1-0 in Super League on April 25, 2026.

Goals: E. Alioski (90' pen).

FC Lugano controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.