FC Lugano 1–0 FC Thun: Result & Stats

FC Lugano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Thun

D. Dos Santos 59'

4/4/2026

Super League · Round 32Stadio di Cornaredo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

FC Lugano40%

×Draw25%

FC Thun35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC LuganoExpected goals in this matchFC Thun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.40

FC Lugano

1.52

FC Thun

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 15 away

1.68

creates per match

1.51

1.28

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FC Lugano

1.68

FC Thun

1.51

allows per match

FC Lugano

1.28

FC Thun

1.35

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

FC Lugano+0.10scores more

FC Thun+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Lugano ↓

FC Thun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Lugano or draw

65%

FC Lugano or FC Thun

75%

Draw or FC Thun

60%

Winning margin

FC Lugano wins by 2+

20%

FC Thun wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Lugano 1+ goals

78%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

45%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

20%

FC Thun 1+ goals

75%

FC Thun 2+ goals

41%

FC Thun 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

54%

FC Thun (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Lugano at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.28 · 23 matches

FC Thun away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.35 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Lugano attack 1.68 + FC Thun defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Thun attack 1.51 + FC Lugano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Lugano scores more

40%

level

25%

FC Thun scores more

35%

FC Lugano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Dos Santos

FC Lugano · F

9.0

Match Events

5'

Genís Montolio

42'

Antonios Papadopoulos

56'

Yanis Cimignani

59'

D. Dos Santos↳ R. Steffen

64'

Michael Heule

66'

F. Dursun← B. Labeau

67'

V. Matoshi← F. Meichtry

67'

N. Reichmuth← K. Imeri

71'

M. Marques← Y. Cimignani

79'

J. Roth← L. Bertone

84'

E. Alioski← M. Zanotti

84'

H. Mahou← R. Steffen

84'

M. Bottani← D. Dos Santos

86'

M. Gutbub← M. Kait

90+3'

Niklas Steffen

90'

E. Pihlstrom← G. Koutsias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots13

1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.39

3Corners5

9Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target6

5Off Target6

6Blocked1

9Inside Box10

6Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

436Total Passes318

342Accurate Passes234

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.53Goals Prevented0.53

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0