FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano: Result & Stats

FC Thun

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Lugano

C. Cassano 86'

11/22/2025

Super League · Round 14Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

FC Thun40%

×Draw22%

FC Lugano38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ThunExpected goals in this matchFC Lugano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.82

FC Thun

1.85

FC Lugano

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 23 away

2.14

creates per match

1.47

2.17

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

FC Thun

2.14

FC Lugano

1.47

allows per match

FC Thun

2.17

FC Lugano

1.57

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

FC Thun+0.05on par

FC Lugano-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Thun ↓

FC Lugano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

FC Thun or draw

62%

FC Thun or FC Lugano

78%

Draw or FC Lugano

60%

Winning margin

FC Thun wins by 2+

21%

FC Lugano wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Thun 1+ goals

84%

FC Thun 2+ goals

55%

FC Thun 3+ goals

28%

FC Lugano 1+ goals

84%

FC Lugano 2+ goals

54%

FC Lugano 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FC Thun (draw refunded)

51%

FC Lugano (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Thun at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.17 · 16 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Thun attack 2.14 + FC Lugano defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

FC Lugano attack 1.47 + FC Thun defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Thun scores more

40%

level

22%

FC Lugano scores more

38%

FC Thun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Thun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Saipi

FC Lugano · G

10.0

Match Events

19'

Justin Roth

22'

Hicham Mahou

63'

M. Belhadj← H. Mahou

66'

Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud

70'

N. Rupp← J. Roth

70'

B. Labeau← C. Ibayi

74'

Uran Bislimi

75'

V. Matoshi← K. Imeri

79'

F. Meichtry← N. Reichmuth

79'

Z. Brault-Guillard← Y. Cimignani

79'

G. Koutsias← K. Behrens

79'

C. Cassano← D. Dos Santos

84'

Marco Bürki

86'

C. Cassano↳ G. Koutsias

88'

L. Stewart← L. Dahler

90+4'

Amir Saipi

90'

A. El Wafi← M. Marques

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

41%Possession59%

20Total Shots13

2.14Expected Goals (xG)0.78

10Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots13

9On Target3

5Off Target2

6Blocked8

12Inside Box8

8Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

314Total Passes457

246Accurate Passes393

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1