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FC Sochi vs Dynamo — Cup 2025

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dynamo
Dynamo
K. Tyukavin 50'
N. Marichal 36'
D. Skopintsev 22'
E. Maouhoub 10'
9/17/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 4Fisht Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Sochi15%
×Draw18%
Dynamo67%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.08
Dynamo
2.42

Dynamo creates 124% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.50
Dynamo
2.33

allows per match

FC Sochi
2.50
Dynamo
0.67

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Dynamo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Dynamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
33%
FC Sochi or Dynamo
82%
Draw or Dynamo
85%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
5%
Dynamo wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
66%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
29%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
10%
Dynamo 1+ goals
91%
Dynamo 2+ goals
69%
Dynamo 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
19%
Dynamo (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Dynamo away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.50 + Dynamo defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Dynamo attack 2.33 + FC Sochi defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Sochi scores more
15%
level
18%
Dynamo scores more
67%

Dynamo at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
E. Maouhoub↳ A. Miranchuk
17'
Solomon Agbalaka
22'
D. Skopintsev↳ D. Fomin
36'
N. Marichal↳ D. Skopintsev
50'
K. Tyukavin
60'
D. Makarov← K. Tyukavin
60'
V. Okishor← D. Fomin
63'
N. Aberdin← S. Agbalaka
63'
R. Ezhov← A. Korneev
63'
D. Vasiljev← M. Mukhin
67'
Denis Makarov
74'
Z. Fedorov← R. Bart
74'
D. Aleksandrov← A. Miranchuk
76'
Aleksandr Osipov
83'
K. Kravtsov← A. Kovalenko
83'
B. Zaynutdinov← D. Glebov
83'
I. Sergeev← E. Maouhoub
84'
Ignacio Saavedra

Statistics

FCDynamo
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Cup: FC Sochi 0–4 Dynamo

Dynamo beat FC Sochi 4-0 in Cup on September 17, 2025.

Goals: E. Maouhoub (10'), D. Skopintsev (22'), N. Marichal (36'), K. Tyukavin (50').

The match was played at Fisht Olympic Stadium in Sochi.